TY - JOUR T1 - The Economic Groundhog Saw His Shadow JF - Trading SP - 42 LP - 44 VL - 2004 IS - 1 AU - Dennis I. Simon Y1 - 2004/03/20 UR - http://guides.pm-research.com/content/2004/1/42.abstract N2 - Economic recoveries usually bring a break from high rates of corporate default, bankruptcy, and restructuring. Unprecedented circumstances may create a very different scenario this time. Debt remains at record highs. The stock market is stretched. Interest rates have no place to go but up. Corporate cash flows are likely to tighten. With these factors converging, the recovery is providing no relief for the debt-laden companies that managed to avoid default during recession and no breathing room for those players that succumbed and restructured. As a result, a rapid return to record levels of corporate restructuring is a moderate-to-high probability. ER -